Leni Robredo has already said she is not running for national office in 2028. She wants to stay in Naga City and seek another term as mayor. That should ordinarily settle the matter. Philippine politics, however, has a stubborn relationship with the word “no.” The moment a survey places a reluctant politician within striking distance of Malacañang, somebody inevitably asks, “Pero paano kung magbago ang isip?” Robredo herself was unequivocal in April, saying she was sure she would not join the national elections.
So, indulge the hypothetical. Suppose circumstances change. Suppose the calls become louder, a credible coalition forms, and Robredo eventually says yes. Can she win? The careful answer is: yes, she could. But nobody can responsibly say today that she would. The distinction matters. Pulse Asia’s mid-2026 survey had Sara Duterte leading Robredo, 51% to 43%, in a hypothetical head-to-head race.
What is remarkable is that Robredo remains competitive while repeatedly saying she is not interested. She is not campaigning, forming a slate, or asking people to wait for her, yet many voters still do. Pulse Asia president Ronald Holmes believes she could become competitive if she changed her mind. That says something about the support she still carries.
Still, support must eventually become organization. Duterte has already declared and can spend the coming years building alliances and machinery. Robredo, if she enters, would have to catch up. The volunteer spirit of 2022 would matter, but so would resources, strategy, local networks, and discipline.
Most of all, she would need to persuade. Another Robredo campaign cannot be 2022 with fresh posters. Her loyal supporters are already loyal. The real contest is for Filipinos who rejected her before—those who found her distant, weak, elitist, partisan, or simply less appealing than the alternative. Winning means reaching beyond the choir. It comes from listening to people who do not.
This is also why supporters should resist treating every encouraging survey as vindication and every unfavorable one as suspicious. Polls are snapshots produced through particular questions, samples, dates, and conditions. They are useful precisely because they sometimes tell us what we would rather not hear. A survey does not become scientific when our candidate rises and “fake” when she falls. Methodology does not change with the color of the campaign shirt.
There is one more complication: people do not always judge political information neutrally. Little, Schnakenberg, and Turner (2022) found that motivated reasoning can weaken democratic accountability by making voters less responsive to evidence about political performance. In the Philippines, that tendency finds plenty of digital fuel. The Reuters Institute’s 2025 Philippines report noted that social media remained the country’s preferred news source, while false or misleading narratives and coordinated attacks intensified amid political polarization (Chua, 2025). By 2028, the contest will not just be over candidates. It will also be over reality itself.
That is why I find the question “Can Leni beat Sara?” less interesting than it initially sounds. A presidential election is not Pacquiao versus Márquez with national policy added between rounds. If Robredo runs, she deserves scrutiny. What exactly would she propose on food prices, wages, education, health care, agriculture, jobs, infrastructure, corruption, and the West Philippine Sea? Who would finance and surround her campaign? What compromises would coalition-building require? What did she learn from losing in 2022? What has her return to local governance taught her? A returning candidate should not receive a nostalgia exemption.
The same scrutiny belongs to Duterte. Her lead establishes political strength, not automatic fitness for office. Voters should examine her record, policy positions, handling of public funds, leadership style, alliances, response to criticism, impeachment portfolio, and plans for governing a country far larger and more complicated than any political stronghold. Senator Risa Hontiveros, who says she is seriously considering a presidential run, deserves the same treatment. So does anyone else who eventually enters the race. A familiar surname should open questions, not close them.
Robredo would also face the delicate problem of coalition politics. National elections are rarely won through ideological purity. Yesterday’s opponent can become tomorrow’s ally, and sometimes that is simply how democratic governing coalitions are built. The real test is what must be surrendered in exchange. Working with former rivals on sound policy may be statesmanship. Looking away from corruption, abuse, dishonesty, or injustice because an old adversary has become electorally useful is something else. Coalitions may change. Non-negotiables should not.
There is another reason I hesitate to predict a Robredo victory. We are still more than a year and a half away from the election. Food prices can change. Governments can succeed or stumble. New scandals can erupt. International crises can intervene. The current impeachment proceedings may help define the political landscape. Candidates can rise, implode, withdraw, reconcile, split, or surprise us. A viral video can alter a week; a national crisis can rearrange an election. Anyone confidently declaring today who will win in May 2028 is describing certainty the evidence simply does not provide. The source material itself treats Robredo’s continued support as significant despite her refusal to run, not as proof of eventual victory.
So yes, if Leni Robredo changes her mind, she could make the 2028 race genuinely competitive. The numbers suggest she has a constituency from which to build. They do not guarantee that the constituency is large enough, expandable enough, or organized enough to win. More importantly, those who once supported her should not begin with “Leni pa rin” and stop thinking there. Duterte supporters should not do that either. Neither should supporters of Hontiveros, Aquino, Marcos, Tulfo, Romualdez, Padilla, or anybody else.
By 2028, I hope the more useful question is not simply “Can Leni win?” It should be “Who has earned the right to govern?” I may admire a candidate, defend a candidate, or even hope that candidate changes her mind. But no politician should own my vote. Good governance, social justice, accountability, competence, human dignity, the rule of law, and truth should outlive every candidacy. Candidates may change. Our non-negotiables should not.
Doc H fondly describes himself as a ”student of and for life” who, like many others, aspires to a life-giving and why-driven world grounded in social justice and the pursuit of happiness. His views do not necessarily reflect those of the institutions he is employed or connected with.
