Naga City Mayor and former Vice President Leni Robredo and Davao City Mayor Sebastian “Baste” Duterte are neck and neck in a two-way matchup for president in 2028, according to the newly released October 2026 National Momentum Survey.
The non-commissioned survey, conducted from October 16 to 19, asked Filipino adults nationwide who they would vote for president if the 2028 presidential race were only between Robredo and Baste Duterte.
It found a statistical tie, with 45.7% picking Robredo and 43.2% preferring Baste Duterte. About a tenth of Filipino adults, however, remain undecided, with 6.4% unsure and 4.6% declining to answer. The 2.5-percentage-point gap is within the survey’s ±2.6-percentage-point margin of error.
Vice President Sara Duterte, whose impeachment trial is expected to end in the coming months, said in early October that her mother had encouraged her to return home to Davao City and let her brother, Baste Duterte, run in the 2028 national elections instead.
Sara Duterte announced her presidential bid in February amid the filing of impeachment complaints against her at the House of Representatives. Since her impeachment trial began in July, her pre-election numbers have since been steady at around 44%.
Even in a two-way and three-way matchup against the sitting vice president, Sara Duterte maintains a lead of more than 20 percentage points over Robredo and other potential presidential candidates.
But if Sara Duterte is taken out of the matchup and Baste Duterte enters the race, Robredo fares much better, statistically tying with the Davao City mayor in a head-to-head matchup for the 2028 presidency.
The regional divide in voter preferences is pronounced in this matchup. Robredo draws majority support from Metro Manila (62.4%), the Rest of Luzon (55.7%), and about half of the adults in Visayas (51.6%).
Meanwhile, Baste Duterte’s support is primarily concentrated in Mindanao, where 79.8% say they would vote for him. In the other three regional clusters, only about a third of Filipino adults say they would vote for him for president.
Along partisan lines, support for Robredo can mostly be found among adults who identify themselves as Pro-Opposition1 (81.7%) or Pro-Marcos (71.3%). About half of Independent Filipino adults (51.6%) also say they prefer Robredo over Baste Duterte (34.8%).
Duterte supporters, on the other hand, overwhelmingly favor the Davao City mayor (80.4%) over Robredo (14.5%). Support for Baste Duterte is considerably lower among Pro-Marcos adults (21.0%) and Pro-Opposition adults (10.5%).
When looking at the figures across generations, Gen Zs are the most divided in their presidential preference, with 41.1% saying they would vote for Robredo, 45.5% choosing Baste Duterte, and 13.5% still undecided.
Millennials, meanwhile, are more likely to vote for Baste Duterte, with 54.2% saying they prefer him over Robredo (36.7%). The Naga City mayor, however, has majority support from older generations like Gen X (57.6%), Baby Boomers and the Silent Generation (61.3%).
Conducted from October 16 to 19, the National Momentum Survey was carried out through face-to-face interviews with a nationally representative sample of 1,401 Filipino adults. It has a national margin of error of ±2.6 percentage points at a 95% confidence level.
Subnational margins of error are ±7.0% for the National Capital Region, ±3.8% for the Rest of Luzon (North, South, and Central Luzon), ±6.1% for Visayas, and ±5.8% for Mindanao — all at a 95% confidence level.
Find the complete survey results on our public dashboard at momentumresearch.ph.
