Senator Raffy Tulfo’s 10-point lead over Sen. Robin Padilla in August has narrowed to a statistical tie in the pre-election poll for vice president of the newly released October 2026 National Momentum Survey.
The non-commissioned survey, conducted from October 16 to 19, asked Filipino adults nationwide whom they would vote for vice president if the 2028 national elections took place today. They were given 12 names to choose from.
It found that support for Tulfo dropped from 25% in August to 18% in October, while Padilla’s numbers rose from 15% to 20%. With a ±2.6 percentage point margin of error, the two senators are considered statistically tied for vice president.
Sens. Bong Go and Rodante Marcoleta, on the other hand, held steady at 14% and 9% from August, respectively, while. Sen Bam Aquino’s support rose from 8% to 10% and Sen. Kiko Pangilinan from 3% to 7%.
Sen. Risa Hontiveros’ numbers, meanwhile, slightly declined from 8% to 6%. Other names show minimal to no changes since August.
Another 7% of Filipino adults remain undecided and 2% refuse to mention their preference for vice president.
While Padilla is among the leading bets in the pre-election polls for vice president, he said in September that he no longer plans to run for any public office in 2028. Earlier in February, Padilla said he would run for vice president if former President Rodrigo Duterte asked him to.
Aquino and Tulfo have also ruled out a bid for vice president in 2028, with the latter saying he intends to seek a second term in the Senate.
Luzon prefers Tulfo, while Mindanao prefers Padilla; other regions vary
Regionally, Tulfo leads in the Rest of Luzon with 25%, around 11 points ahead of Padilla (14%). The opposite can be found in Mindanao, where Padilla has a wide lead at 44%, twice Go’s 22%.
In Metro Manila and the Visayas, support is more evenly spread. Tulfo (19%), Go (17%), and Pangilinan (16%) are within three points of one another among adults in Metro Manila.
Meanwhile, Marcoleta (15%), Tulfo (14%), and Hontiveros (13%) are within two points in the Visayas. Other names within the subnational margin of error include Aquino, Go, and Padilla at 11% each.
About a tenth of Filipino adults in each regional cluster, except Metro Manila, are still undecided on their preferred vice president or have refused to answer.
Filipinos lean toward bets of their own political affiliation, while Independents are mixed
Filipino adults have the tendency to prefer a vice presidential bet they politically align with. For instance, a third of Pro-Marcos adults (33%) say they would vote for Tulfo, while 39% of Pro-Duterte adults would vote for Padilla.
Among the Pro-Opposition, 29% say they prefer Aquino for vice president. He is closely followed by Pangilinan (21%).
Independents, meanwhile, show more variation. Tulfo draws 22% support and Padilla 16%. Another 12% of this group are also undecided or refuse to share their preference. This matters, considering adults who identify as independent account for 45% of the sample.
Younger generations prefer Padilla, while older generations prefer Tulfo
By generation, Padilla is the most preferred vice president among Gen Z adults (20%) and Millennials (28%), while Tulfo is the most preferred among Gen X (21%) and Baby Boomers (31%).
Tulfo’s edge, however, is widest among Baby Boomers and the Silent Generation, the oldest group in the survey, where he is 21 points ahead of Marcoleta and Hontiveros (10% each). Among Gen X, Tulfo only leads by two points over Go (19%).
Among Millennials, Padilla leads Go, another Duterte-aligned name, by 12 points. Among Gen Z, his lead is 5 points against Aquino.
Conducted from October 16 to 19, the National Momentum Survey was carried out through face-to-face interviews with a nationally representative sample of 1,401 Filipino adults. It has a national margin of error of ±2.6 percentage points at a 95% confidence level.
Subnational margins of error are ±7.0% for the National Capital Region, ±3.8% for the Rest of
Luzon (North, South, and Central Luzon), ±6.1% for Visayas, and ±5.8% for Mindanao — all at a 95% confidence level.
Find the complete survey results on our public dashboard at momentumresearch.ph.
